The U.S. could face a shortage of up to 86,000 physicians by 2036. For patients, that could mean longer waits, fewer doctors in rural communities and greater difficulty getting timely care.
A shortage of doctors may sound like a problem for hospitals and healthcare systems. But the effects could eventually reach nearly every patient—from how long it takes to get a primary-care appointment to how far someone has to travel to see a specialist.
The Association of American Medical Colleges (AAMC) projects that the United States could face a shortage of up to 86,000 physicians by 2036. The organization estimates a shortage of between 13,500 and 86,000 doctors, depending on how physician supply and healthcare demand develop.
Why is America facing a doctor shortage?
There isn’t one reason.
The U.S. population is growing and aging, increasing demand for medical care. More people are also living with chronic diseases that require ongoing treatment.
At the same time, a significant portion of today’s physician workforce is approaching retirement age. Burnout and the demands of practicing medicine can also make recruiting and retaining doctors more difficult.
AAMC says population growth and aging are among the primary drivers of the increasing need for physicians. By 2036, the U.S. population is projected to grow by 8.4%.
The problem isn’t simply producing more medical school graduates. Doctors must complete residency training before practicing independently, and the number of Medicare-supported residency positions has been effectively capped since 1997. AAMC says this creates a bottleneck in physician training.
What could a doctor shortage mean for you?
1. Longer waits for appointments
When there aren’t enough doctors to meet demand, patients may have to wait longer for routine appointments or specialist care.
That can be especially frustrating for people who need ongoing treatment for diabetes, heart disease, cancer or other chronic conditions.
A longer wait doesn’t necessarily mean worse care—but delays can become a problem when a condition needs timely evaluation.
2. Fewer doctors in rural communities
The shortage isn’t expected to affect every community equally.
Rural areas already face significant healthcare workforce challenges. Healthcare Dive recently reported that the physician shortage could put additional pressure on rural hospitals and clinics, where staffing challenges are already severe.
The AMA has also highlighted the projected physician shortage and the particular need to expand residency training in rural communities.
For someone living in a rural area, the issue may be more than waiting another few weeks for an appointment.
It could mean driving an hour or more to see a specialist—or having to travel to another community for certain services.
3. More pressure on emergency rooms
When patients cannot get timely primary or specialty care, some may eventually turn to emergency departments when their symptoms become difficult to manage.
That can increase pressure on already busy hospitals.
Preventive and routine care is generally easier to provide when patients have reliable access to a primary-care clinician who can identify problems early and coordinate treatment.
4. More use of telehealth
Telehealth could become an increasingly important part of the solution.
Virtual visits can connect patients with physicians who may not be available locally. Telehealth may be particularly useful for follow-up visits, medication management and some behavioral-health services.
But virtual care cannot replace every medical service. Some conditions require a physical examination, diagnostic testing, procedures or hands-on treatment.
Primary care could face a particularly serious shortage
The projected shortage isn’t limited to family doctors.
AAMC estimates that the country could be short between 20,200 and 40,400 primary-care physicians by 2036. The organization also projects shortages among specialists.
That matters because primary-care doctors often serve as the starting point for the healthcare system.
They provide preventive care, manage chronic conditions, order diagnostic tests and refer patients to specialists.
If access to primary care becomes more difficult, problems can ripple throughout the healthcare system.
Can the U.S. train more doctors?
One major proposal is to increase the number of federally supported residency positions.
AAMC has supported legislation that would add 14,000 Medicare-supported residency positions over seven years, with an emphasis on communities that face physician shortages.
The American Hospital Association has similarly called for increased investment in graduate medical education to help address the projected shortage and preserve access to care.
But training more doctors takes years. A medical student doesn’t become an independent physician overnight.
That means decisions made today about medical education, residency programs and healthcare workforce policy could affect patient access for years to come.
Could nurse practitioners, physician assistants and AI help?
Potentially.
Nurse practitioners and physician assistants already provide care in many primary-care and specialty settings. Expanding their role may help address some access problems, particularly in underserved communities.
Technology could also help physicians handle administrative work and manage larger patient populations.
Artificial intelligence is increasingly being explored for tasks such as documentation, scheduling, clinical decision support and patient communication.
But technology is unlikely to eliminate the need for physicians.
Instead, the goal may be to allow doctors and other healthcare professionals to spend more time with patients and less time on administrative tasks.
What can patients do now?
The projected shortage doesn’t mean you should panic about finding a doctor.
But it does make having an established relationship with a primary-care provider more valuable.
Patients can take a few practical steps:
- Establish a primary-care relationship before you urgently need one.
- Keep up with recommended preventive screenings.
- Ask about telehealth when an in-person visit isn’t necessary.
- If you need a specialist, ask whether your primary-care office can help identify available providers.
- Don’t ignore new or worsening symptoms simply because an appointment is difficult to obtain.
- If you live in a rural or underserved area, ask about community health centers and other local healthcare resources.
The Bottom Line
The projected shortage of up to 86,000 physicians by 2036 isn’t a prediction that America will suddenly lose 86,000 doctors.
It means the country could have up to 86,000 fewer physicians than needed to meet projected healthcare demand.
For consumers, the biggest concern is access.
More doctors may be needed to keep appointment waits from growing, maintain access to specialists, support rural hospitals and provide care to an aging population.
The healthcare system has years to respond—but training physicians takes years too.
The question isn’t whether America will need more doctors. It’s whether the country can train and retain enough of them before patients feel the shortage even more directly.
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